Dive Brief:

• A global malware attack could infect approximately one-quarter of the world’s computer systems, according to a new report from CyberCube and Munich Re. Such an attack would likely result in 15% being fully compromised.
• The study also predicted that a major cloud security outage could last for up to 72 hours, with a single-day outage of the major providers costing companies approximately 1% of their annual revenue. 
• Internet-of-things devices in homes and industrial settings represent a major new risk, the study found, as do artificial intelligence large language models.

Dive Insight:

CyberCube and Munich Re conducted the study, based on a survey of 93 leading cyber-risk executives, in part to address concerns about how the insurance industry can properly model catastrophic cyber-risk events. Given that global industries are increasingly interconnected and increasingly dependent on cloud security, a mass computer infection or a disruption of a major service could have serious consequences. 

“The objective was to advance overall market understanding,” Stephan Brunner, senior cyber actuary at Munich Re, said via email. “The insights help shape a more nuanced view of how such systemic cyber events might unfold and the factors that drive wide variation in risk exposure across firms.”

The WannaCry and NotPetya events nearly a decade ago illustrated the consequences of mass infections, crippling thousands of computers around the world and disrupting important businesses like FedEx and Maersk.

“Malware events such as NotPetya have shown themselves to be extremely damaging to the affected countries and organizations; findings from our experts suggest that another event on the scale of NotPetya would not be surprising,” Jon Laux, VP of analytics at CyberCube, said via email.

According to the report, organizations should enhance patch management, make backups of their data and use network segmentation to reduce the risk of immediate spread of infections. Successful use of these strategies could reduce the impact of a widespread infection by 50% to 80%.